Olga Gorbachev
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Phone: +44-(0)131-650-3853 Fax: +44-(0)131-650-4514 E-mail: Olga dot Gorbachev at ed dot
ac dot |
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Education
- Ph.D.
(2007), Economics,
- M.
Phil (2004), Economics,
- M.A.
(2003), Economics,
- B.A.
(1999), Economics, magna cum laude,
Research Interests
- Applied Economics and Applied Consumption Theory, Estimation of Liquidity Constraints and their Evolution
- Evolution of Volatility and Inequality of Household Income and Consumption
- Economics of Homelessness
- Panel Data Analysis
Publications
- “Did Household Consumption Become More Volatile?” (Latest version May 2010, first version May 2007, forthcoming in American Economic Review)
Abstract: I show that after accounting for predictable variation arising from movements in real interest rates, preferences and income shocks, liquidity constraints and measurement errors, volatility of household consumption in the US increased by 23.5 percent between 1970 and 2004. The increase was lower than that of volatility of family income. However, nonwhite households and household with less than 13 years of education, for whom there was no differential increase in income volatility, experienced significantly larger increase in volatility of household consumption. The effect of race and education remained significant even after income, working history, marital status, family size and composition were controlled for. Substantial differences in wealth and access to credit markets point to the main reason for this divide.
- “Volatility and Job Creation in the Knowledge Economy” (joint with Graciela Chichilnisky), Essays in Dynamic General Equilibrium Theory Festschrift for David Cass. Series: Studies in Economic Theory, Vol. 20, (Eds. Citanna, A.; Donaldson, J.; Polemarchakis, H.; Siconolfi, P.; Spear, S.), p.45-74, 2005.
- “Volatility in the Knowledge Economy” (joint with Graciela Chichilnisky), Economic Theory, v.24 (3), p.531-547, 2004.
- “To What Extent Does Productivity Drive the Dollar?” (joint with Cédric Tille, Nicolas Stoffels), Current Issues in Economics and Finance, v.7(8), August 2001.
Working Papers/Work in Progress
- The
Effect of Changing Liquidity Constraints on Variability of Household Consumption. (with Keshav Dogra)
- Volatility of
Housing Consumption. (with Brendan O'Flaherty)
- Why Did Household Consumption Volatility Increase?
- Evolution of Consumption Volatility: a Methodological Note.
- Intra Household Insurance and Assortative Mating from 1970 to 2006.
- Did the Financial Crisis of 1998 have a significant impact on the health of the Russian population? (last version Fall 2002)
Abstract: We study whether the increased income uncertainty in the US over the last quarter-century had a negative impact on household welfare by looking at variability of household consumption growth. We are particularly interested in understanding the effect of greater uncertainty on the liquidity constrained households. We study the evolution of liquidity constraints in the US in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, extending Jappelli et al. [1998] methodology using information from the Survey of Consumer Finances. We find that although household indebtedness increased substantially, reflecting greater availability of credit, there was no decline in the proportion of liquidity constrained households between 1983 and 2007. Applying methodology developed in Gorbachev [2010], we find that the evolution of consumption volatility for the liquidity constrained households increased by economically and statistically more than for the unconstrained households. This increase was lower than that of family income volatility for these groups. Nevertheless, the welfare cost to society is substantial: we estimate that an average household would be willing to sacrifice 4.7 percent of nondurable consumption per year to lower consumption risk to its 1984 levels.
Abstract: The aim of the project is to design a theoretical model in which homelessness is an endogenous state that arises in a dynamic stochastic environment. The ultimate goal is to understand whether homelessness spells, entrances and exits could be predicted and if so what information is necessary; and to design and evaluate a homelessness prevention program in a dynamic and stochastic environment. Examples of the questions we want to answer are: Should borrowing constraints be relaxed so that people can borrow their way out of homelessness today, or will relaxing borrowing constraints allow people to over-consume today and so borrow their way into homelessness tomorrow? Should precautionary savings be encouraged so that people have cushions to withstand future shocks, or will savings just delay entry into homelessness? What interventions will affect the probability of becoming homeless and how will they affect behaviour? How will interventions affect incentives to save and to consume before homelessness prevention programs kick in?
Updated May, 2010
